| Abstract: | Can we study the future “rationally” and “scientifically”? This paper examines the methods now in use and finds the assumptions shaky, the tools faulty, and the implications dangerous. With data as the driver, analysis the watchword, quantification the rule, and model-building the prime preoccupation, futurology rests heavily on two key pillars, the information base and cost/benefit calculations. Because these are shown to rest on quicksand, the elaborate methodological structure based on them totters precariously. |
