贸易政策不确定性对软件和集成电路企业经营风险的影响

利用沪深A股的软件和集成电路上市公司样本,实证检验贸易政策不确定性对中国软件和集成电路企业经营风险的影响。结果发现,贸易政策不确定性上升总体上将加剧软件和集成电路企业经营风险。进一步区分“企业-区域-行业”维情境差异检验发现,上述结论仅在融资约束程度较高、地区市场化水平较低、行业景气程度较差时显著。说明在中国经济外部环境更趋复杂严峻和不确定的情况下,软件和集成电路企业经营面临贸易政策不确定性的负面影响,并存在情境差异。据此提出有关降低贸易政策不确定性、确保企业经营安全与高质量发展的策略建议。

The Impact of Trade Policy Uncertainty on the Operational Risk of Software and Integrated Circuit Enterprises

The impact of trade policy uncertainty on the operational risk of China''s software and integrated circuit enterprises is empirically tested by using the samples of Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share software and integrated circuit listed companies. It is found that the rising uncertainty of trade policy will aggravate the operational risks of software and integrated circuit enterprises on the whole. Further distinguish the enterprise region industry dimension situation difference test found that the above conclusions are only significant when the degree of financing constraints is high, the level of regional marketization is low, and the industry boom is poor. It shows that when the external environment of China''s economy is more complex, severe and uncertain, software and integrated circuit enterprises are facing the negative impact of trade policy uncertainty, and there are situational differences. Based on this,some strategic suggestions are put forward to reduce the uncertainty of trade policy and ensure the safe operation and high-quality development of enterprises.