深圳河流域内陆侧洪涝风险分析

基于致灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体与防灾减灾能力四大风险要素对深圳河流域内陆侧的洪涝风险进行分析，构建以雨、洪、潮叠加的复杂致灾因子危险性和高度城市化带来的高易损性为特征的沿海城市洪涝灾害风险评价指标体系，用层次分析法修正熵权法以确定评价指标的权重，得到洪涝的危险性风险、易损性风险和综合风险区划。结果表明：福田区西南部至罗湖区西南部是极高危险性与极高易损性的统一体，在防洪减灾中应予以较全方位的重点防护，其他低易损性且高危险性地区只需根据主导的危险性因子给予有所侧重的防护措施；构建的沿海城市洪涝灾害风险评价指标体系可为政府防灾减灾规划与防洪应急响应提供必要的参考依据，亦可为防灾资源分配和灾后恢复重建提供有效信息。

Analysis on flood/waterlogging risk at inland side of the Shenzhen River Basin

Flood/waterlogging risk analysis was conducted of the inland side of the Shenzhen River Basin based on key factors, including disasters inducing factors, disaster-pregnant environment, disaster-bearing body, and the capacity of disaster prevention and reduction. A flood/waterlogging risk evaluation index system of coastal cities was established, which was characterized by hazard risk resulted from the complex risk inducing factors with superposition of rain, flood, and tide as well as high vulnerability risk caused by high urbanization. The entropy weight was modified with the analytic hierarchy process to carry out the weight distribution of indicators, and the flood/waterlogging hazard risk, vulnerability risk, and comprehensive flood risk zoning were obtained. The results show that the southwest of Futian District to the southwest of Luohu District was identified to be a unity with extremely high risk of hazard and vulnerability, which deserves to be prioritized in flood/waterlogging prevention and mitigation in all aspects, while the low-vulnerability but high-hazard area should be given customized protection measures based on the leading risk factors. The flood/waterlogging risk evaluation index system of coastal cities can provide a necessary reference for government in disaster prevention and mitigation planning and emergency response, and it can also provide effective information for disaster prevention resources allocation and post-disaster reconstruction.