增长“尾效”、要素贡献率及资源冗余——基于农业的分析

重点计算并分析了农业经济增长中资源消耗带来的增长"尾效",以及农业生产的各投入要素对农业经济增长的贡献率,并基于DEA方法计算了各资源的节约潜力。研究发现:由于土地资源、能源和水资源的增长"尾效"存在,因此每年农业经济增长速度会下降1.32%;资本对农业经济增长的贡献率最高,为76.86%,其次是土地资源和能源——分别为1.08%和1.01%,水资源的贡献率仅为0.07%;技术进步的贡献率为22.17%,劳动力的贡献率甚至为负(-1.19%)——这主要是因为农业部门存在大量的就业冗余;1983年以前,冗余量最高的是水资源,其次是土地,再次是劳动力和能源,之后各资源的利用效率大幅提高,但是2002年以后各资源的利用效率停滞不前。

Growth Drag,Factor Contribution and Resource Redundancy:Analysis on Agriculture

This paper evaluates the impact of growth drag on agricultural economy ,the contributes of input factors to the growth of agricultural economy ,and the resources saving potential by using DEA .The results show as follows :the annual agricultural growth is associated with 1.32 percent decline due to the growth drag of land ,water and energy ;capital contributes around 76.86 percent to the growth of agricultural econo-my ,whereas the contributions from land ,energy ,water and technological progress are 1.08 percent ,1.01 percent ,0.07 percent and 22.17 per-cent respectively ;correspondingly ,labor is found to have a negative contribution of -1.19 percent to agricultural growth in China ,mainly be-cause there is a large number of redundancy in employment in agriculture ;before the year of 1983 ,water resource has the biggest redundancy , next is land ,labor and energy ;with the promoting of reform and modernizing the production method ,the utilization rate of every resource is widely improved ,but the utilization rate of every resource stagnates after the year of 2002.