生产者补贴政策对我国粮食安全的影响研究——基于玉米省级面板数据

目的 生产者补贴政策的实施使粮食价格由政府干预转为市场供求关系引导，但此政策的实施对粮食安全产生的具体影响还没有确切结论。基于此，文章意在分析生产者补贴政策对粮食生产数量及质量安全的双重影响。方法 选取了2010—2020年8个省份玉米生产相关的面板数据，运用双重差分法建立模型，经过平行趋势检验、安慰剂检验后对提出的假说进行实证检验。结果 （1）生产者补贴政策有效促进了粮食增产，但对粮食提质效果甚微，即该政策使玉米的人均产量和单位面积产量显著增加，但对玉米收获质量的影响并不显著。（2）生产者补贴政策对种粮农户数量产生显著的负向效应，减少了农业劳动力供给；同时，此政策对农业机械化水平产生正向效应，种粮农户增加了对玉米种植生产要素的投入。结论 为进一步保障我国粮食安全，未来粮食政策实施必须在保证粮食数量安全的基础上，更多地指导种粮农户种植优质粮食，不断完善现代化粮食产业体系，在数量质量双层面上保障国家粮食安全。

THE EFFECT OF PRODUCER SUBSIDY POLICY ON GRAIN SECURITY IN CHINA——BASED ON CORN PROVINCIAL PANEL DATA

The implementation of producer subsidy policy makes the grain price determination and formation mechanism changed from government intervention to market supply and demand guidance, but, there is no definite conclusion about the implication of this policy on grain security. This research aims to analyze the dual effects of producer subsidy policies on the quantity and quality safety of grain production. The difference-difference method was used to test empirically the proposed hypothesis based on the panel data of corn production in eight provinces from 2010 to 2020, in which the parallel trend test and placebo test were performed. The results were showed as followed. (1) Producer subsidy policy effectively promoted grain yield growth, but had little effect on grain quality improvement, that was, the policy significantly increased the per capita corn yield and yield per unit area, but had no significant effect on corn harvest quality. (2) Producer subsidy policy had a significant negative effect on the number of grain farmers, resulting in a decrease in agricultural labor supply; At the same time, this policy had a positive effect on the level of agricultural mechanization, grain farmers increased the input of corn planting production factors. Therefore, in order to further guarantee our food security, future food policy implementation must, on the basis of ensuring food quantity security, guide more grain farmers to grow high-quality grain, improve the modern food industry system constantly, and ensure national food security in both quantity and quality.