固定资产投资对浙江农业产出影响的实证

固定资产投资成为拉动我国经济增长的动力,投资通过产业部门的关联作用,产生拉动和推动作用,从而促进农业产业的增长,且这种促进作用持续时间较长。本文利用浙江11地市的面板数据,运用固定效应模型就浙江省固定资产投资对农业产出的影响进行实证。实证结果表明：固定资产投资对各地市农业产出总体具有促进作用,但地区之间的影响存在明显差异。当期的固定资产投资对农业产出弹性系数较小,且温州、衢州和丽水的系数为负值;滞后一期的固定资产投资对农业产出的弹性系数要大于当期,宁波和衢州的产出系数为负值;滞后二期固定资产投资对农业产出的弹性系数最显著。这说明即使在投入要素收益边际递减规律下,资本仍是浙江农业产出的增长重要原因,但各市存在比较大的区别。因此,为促进各地市农业产出的增长和全省产出的均衡增长,应进一步扩大农业资本投入的规模。

Positive Analysis of Investment in Fixed Asset on Zhejiang's Agricultural Output

The investment in the fixed asset is one of the power to push economic growth. The investment can push and pull agricultural sector through linkage effect of industrial sector,thereby promote agricultural output increasing,and this effect lasts longer. The paper applies fixed effects regression model to study empirically the effects of investment in fixed asset on Zhejiang＇s agricultural output with panel data of Zhejiang＇s 11 regions. The results indicate that investment in fixed asset can promote generally agricultural output,but there is apparently different to these regions. Coefficient of output elasticity of every region in the current phases is lesser on the whole,and that of Wenzhou,Quzhou and Lishui is minus. The agricultural output elasticity of fixed investment with 1 periods lagged is greater than that of the current phase,that of Ningbo and Quzhou is minus. The coefficient with 2 periods lagged is remarkable. It indicates that capital still plays an important role in growth of agricultural output,even if inputs exist law of diminishing returns. Therefore,to boost agricultural output growth and the balanced growth of agricultural output in 11 regions,government is supposed to increase more investment in fixed asset.