消费者行为差异与中美贸易收支失衡研究

通过对中美间贸易收支的实证分析发现,造成中美间贸易收支不平衡的根本原因是两国消费者行为及其决策时约束条件的不同,并且这种不平衡是不可持续的;短期内,中国国民收入的增加促使不平衡加剧,人民币升值不能改变两国消费者的行为,因此升值不能解决不平衡问题。出路之一在于改变我国出口导向型的经济增长方式,转向内需拉动型的经济增长。

Study on the Relationship between the Differences of Consumer Behavior and the Imbalance of China-US Trade

The empirical analysis on China-US trade balance indicates that the imbalance of China-US trade is mainly caused by the difference of consumer behavior and the difference of the constraint conditions for decision-making, and this imbalance is unsustainable. In a short period, growth of China＇s national income would enhance the imbalance, and the appreciation of RMB could not change the consumer behaviors between the two countries, so the appreciation cannot solve the imbalance. One approach for solving the problem is to convert export-oriented economic growth into domestic demand promoted one.