基于SSM的主导产业选择基准——以南京市为例

在梳理了传统主导产业选择基准理论与偏离-份额分析方法基本原理的基础上,引入了一个主导产业选择基准:偏离份额基准.运用此基准,通过选取南京市1999年和2005年两个时间点的29个制造业产业部门为分析对象,以国家范围内的29个制造业产业部门的情况为参照,对南京市29个制造业产业部门进行份额偏离分量、结构偏离分量和竞争力偏离分量的综合比较分析,筛选出了最有可能成为主导产业的3个产业部门.对结果分析表明此选择基准在主导产业选择中具有基本客观的有效性.

THE RESEARCH ON THE BENCHMARK OF THE CHOICE OF LEADING INDUSTRY BASED ON THE SHIFT-SHARE-METHOD

The paper begins with the reviewing of the traditional theory of the choice of leading industry,and then introduces the theoretical basis of the Shift-Share-Method,based on the method the paper establishes the Shift-Share Benchmark as a benchmark for the choice of leading industry.With the use of the benchmark,the paper selects the city of Nanjing's 29 manufacturing industries with reference to the whole state's 29 manufacturing industries in 1999s and 2005s as the object to be analyzed;and then comprehensively analyses the Nanjing's 29 manufacturing industries' three indicators: the national share(NI),the industry mix(IM),the regional share(RS),based on the analysis the paper chooses the three industries which are most likely to be the leading industries.The result indicates that to some extent the benchmark is very useful for the choosing of the leading industry.