Migration in late working age and early retirement

The publication of population forecasts for small areas has highlighted the primitive basis for their migration components, while a recent growth of interest in the migration of elderly people has revealed pronounced differentials by age, sex and marital status. The paper presents a detailed examination of these differentials from United States and British census sources. It shows that improved forecasts of the volume of internal migration are produced by combining age specific participation rates with population forecasts for single or quinquennial years of age. Different series, based on different elderly cohorts, diverge in their forecasts by as much as 20%. Illustrative forecasts are presented and some implications for migration theory are discussed.