我国居民消费与经济增长的实证分析

消费对经济增长具有重大作用,居民消费作为消费需求的主体,其重要性更不能忽视。在面临金融危机的背景下,我国急需将经济增长从投资、出口转变为消费、投资、出口协调拉动。通过对1978——2008年的年度数据,对居民消费和经济增长进行实证分析,得出两者具有长期均衡关系,两者为双向的格兰杰因果关系;通过建立误差修正模型,得出两者短期之间的动态关系。最后,针对扩大内需提出四点建议。

An Empirical Study on the Relationship between Chinese Residents' Consumption and Economic Growth

Consumption has a major role in economic growth,resident＇s consumption demand as the main consumption,the importance of not be overlooked.In the context of the financial crisis facing our country needed the economic growth from investment and exports into consumption,investment and exports driving.In this paper,1978-2008 annual data on consumption and economic growth in the empirical analysis are cited.I obtaine long-run equilibrium relationship exists between the two,both of the reasons for the two-way Granger,and build error correction model,obtained short-term dynamic relationship between the two.Finally,I put forward four proposals to expand domestic demand.