城市化与产业结构升级的两种模式

为探寻发达国家城市化的经验与教训,对美、英、法、德、日五国城市化与产业结构升级的关系进行了分析,并对美、德两国城市化与产业结构升级的关系进行了格兰杰因果检验。研究发现,以美国为代表的内生集中型城市化模式和以德国为代表的外生均衡型城市化模式代表了城市化与产业结构升级关系当中的两种不同模式。其中,德国模式不仅在快速城市化的同时避免了严重的"城市病",而且对产业结构升级起到了积极的推动作用。

Two models of urbanization and upgrading of industrial structure

In order to explore the experiences of urbanization of the developed countries,this article analyzes the relationship between urbanization and the upgrading of industry structure in the United States,British,France,Germany and Japan,and conducts Granger Causality Test on the United States and Germany.According to the research result,there are two different kinds of models about the relationship,namely,endogenous and focused,or,exogenous and balanced model of urbanization with the United States and Germany as representative respectively.Germany has not only succeeded to avoid severe ’urban diseases’ during the progress of rapid urbanization,but also played a positive role in the upgrading of industry,which is worth of reference to China.