金融危机背景下北京农产品加工业的发展与预测

本文对北京市农产品加工业的发展现状进行了统计分析,在此基础上,采用C-D生产函数的双对数模型,运用最小二乘法,分别利用季度和年度截面数据对北京市农产品加工业的产出进行了回归分析和预测。得出如下结论:金融危机对北京农产品加工业有一定影响,但总体影响不大。最后,模拟了不同程度的金融危机冲击对产出水平的影响,并讨论了影响北京农产品加工业发展的因素。

Development and Forecast on Agro-processing Industry in Beijing under Financial Crisis

On the basis of the statistical analysis on the status quo of agro-processing industry in Beijing,this paper uses the double log C-D function and OLS（least squares） as well as the quarterly and annual data to make the cross-section regression and prediction. It draws the conclusions that the impacts of financial crisis on the agro-processing industry in Beijing exists,but is not too great. Finally,it simulates the different change of economic fluctuation which leads to the change rate of output levehand discusses the factors influencing the develomnent of agro-processing industry in Beijing.