State dependence in the influence of monetary policy regime shifts on hospitality index returns

Previous research studies reveal that changes in monetary policy can significantly affect hospitality stock returns. This paper makes another contribution by showing that the impact of shifts in the Fed monetary policy regime on US hospitality index returns varies to a great extent in the different stages of business cycle and under different credit market conditions. Shifts in the Fed monetary policy regime are measured by directional changes in the discount rate (DR) and directional changes in the federal funds rate (FFR). In particular, the significant influence of monetary policy regime shifts on hospitality index returns depends on the state of economy. The significant influence of DR exists only during periods of business cycle contraction. In addition, although US hospitality index returns respond significantly to FFR under both business cycle expansion and contraction, the size of the response is substantially larger and more statistically significant during periods of business cycle contraction. Finally, the impact of both DR and FFR on hospitality index returns depends on the credit market conditions, especially when the credit market is tight.