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Ergodic chaos, learning and sunspot equilibrium
Authors:Aloisio P Araujo  Wilfredo L Maldonado
Institution:EPGE/FGV and IMPA, Caixa Postal 34021 Jardim Botanico, CEP 22470-050, RJ, BRASIL, BR
Departamento de Economia, Universidade Federal Fluminense, Rua Tiradentes 17, Niterói, CEP 24210-510, RJ, BRASIL (e-mail: willy@impa.br), BR
Abstract:Summary. In this paper we construct sunspot equilibria that arise from chaotic deterministic dynamics. These equilibria are stationary and have absolutely continuous stationary measures. We prove that they can be learned by a simple rule based on the histograms of past state variables. This work gives a theoretical justification for complex deterministic models that might compete with stochastic models to explain real data. Also we prove the stochastic stability of the indeterminate equilibrium.
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