人力资本、经济增长与空间溢出效应—基于中国省域面板数据的实证分析

以教育年限和成本法分别核算出我国1982～2011年间人力资本水平,运用ESDA描绘了31个省区"经济增长—人力资本"的空间分布特征,并进行了全域及局域空间相关性检验,随后构建了空间Lucas模型,通过面板回归分析了人力资本对经济增长的空间外溢作用,尔后核算出各省区人力资本空间集聚对经济增长的贡献率。我国省域间人力资本与经济增长在地理空间上呈现出显著的集聚态势,且存在强烈的全域空间相关性,但局域间存在差异性,同时从总体上看,相邻省区人力资本对本省经济增长具有显著的正向溢出效应。

Human Capital,Economic Growth and the Spatial Spillover Effects:an Empirical Study Based on the Provincial Panel Data of China

The article constructs the level of human capital in China from 1982 to 2011 by the method of "year of education"and "cost of education".Based on the ESDA,we describe the feature of spatial distribution of economic growth-human capital of 31 provinces in China.Then the article makes global and local spatial correlation inspection,constructs extensible spatial Lucas model,analyzes the spatial spillover effects on human capital in Chinese provinces by regression method,and accounts the contribution of human capital to economic growth.The results show that there exists significantly concentration on the geographic space and positive global spatial correlation between the two,but there exists local heterogeneity of spatial distribution.At the same time,the human capital of contiguous provinces has significantly positive spatial spillover effects on the economic growth of the province on the whole.