人口结构变化对消费结构及储蓄率的影响分析

利用1995年、2002年和2007年的CHIPS(China Household Income Projects)数据实证分析了家庭人口结构变化对城乡居民家庭消费结构和储蓄率的影响。家庭收入、规模大小、户主年龄和家庭不同年龄人口占比等家庭人口结构变量对消费结构和储蓄率都有一定的影响。就消费结构来说,如教育支出方面,老年家庭明显低于年轻家庭;医疗保障支出方面,老年家庭明显高于年轻家庭。同时,研究表明我国城镇和农村家庭的户主年龄与储蓄率略呈U型结构,也就是说我国家庭微观储蓄率与经典的生命周期假设不一致。进一步探讨了未来家庭人口结构变化对中国家庭储蓄率和经济结构的影响以及相关政策涵义。

Impacts of Demographic Changes on Consumption Structure and Savings Rate

Based on 1995,2002 and 2007 CHIPS(China Household Income Projects) data,this paper analyzes the impacts of the family demographic changes on urban and rural households' consumption structure and the savings rate.The results show that:family income,size,age of the head of the household,ratio of different age people in the family and other demographic changes have impact on consumption structure and savings rates.As for Consumption structure,for example,the education and culture consumption of elderly family was significantly lower than young families;medical expenditure of elderly household is significantly higher than young families.Moreover,shows that the relationship between head age of China's urban and rural household in 25 to 60 years old and micro-household's saving rate is slightly U-shaped structure,it is inconsistent with the life-cycle theory.Furthermore,we discuss the issue how do future demographic changes of china affect the national saving and economic growth,as well as the relevant policy implications.