| 治乱无需重典：转型期中国刑事政策效果分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈硕,章元.治乱无需重典：转型期中国刑事政策效果分析[J].经济学(季刊),2014(4):1461-1484. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈硕 章元 |
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| 作者单位： | 复旦大学经济学院, 200433;复旦大学中国社会主义市场经济研究中心 |
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| 摘 要： | 不断实施的“严打”和犯罪率的同时增长促使我们反思当前的刑事政策。基于1989—2009年省级面板数据及PMG方法，本文检验了两种惩罚政策对犯罪的影响：严厉性策略和确定性策略。我们发现前者无法有效遏制犯罪，而后者可以显著降低犯罪。因此，确定性策略在政策上更为经济：可以在不增加司法投入的情况下通过有效分配现有司法资源达到控制犯罪的目的。对2006年以来中央政府刑事政策由“以严为主”到“宽严相济”的转变，本文为其提供了理论和实证注脚。
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| 关 键 词： | 犯罪 严厉性 确定性 |
Crime and Punishment Policies in Contemporary China |
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| SHUO CHEN and YUAN ZHANG.Crime and Punishment Policies in Contemporary China[J].China Economic Quarterly,2014(4):1461-1484. |
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| Authors: | SHUO CHEN and YUAN ZHANG |
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| Institution: | Fudan University, 200433;Fudan University, 200433 |
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| Abstract: | The paper assesses the impact of punishment, especially Severe Strike policy on crime in China. Based on panel data from 1989 to 2009 and PMG method, we examine the effects of two punishment strategies, certainty-oriented and severity-oriented, respectively. The empirical results suggest that first one measured by detection rate is more effective in crime control:1F increase in this indicator will crime. Certainty-oriented strategy is therefore also an policy target without increasing judicial cost. |
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