The Japanese trade balance: Recent history and future prospects |
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Authors: | David Backus |
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Affiliation: | New York University, Stern School of Business, 4th StreetNew York NY 10012-1126USA |
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Abstract: | The rise in the yen in the early 1990s was held out as a `solution' to the persistent Japanese trade surplus. I argued, instead, that the sharp rise in the yen through mid-1993 would lead at most to a modest decline in net exports. This forecast, made in late 1993, was remarkably accurate, despite a subsequent fall in the dollar to 80 yen. It reflects a resilient feature of trade data known to most empirical researchers: that relative price movements account for only a fraction of observed movements in the balance of trade or current account. |
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Keywords: | JEL classification: F31 F32 |
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