基于超调模型和虚拟经济视角的汇率动态分析

汇率决定及其动态调整分析是汇率理论的研究内核。文章以汇率超调模型为基础,突出虚拟经济与实体经济双轮驱动及其与宏观经济总供给和总需求关联运行的作用机理,结合非线性宏观金融理论在货币供需分析中引入可交易金融资产,尝试构建新的分析框架。在虚拟经济与实体经济视角下分析美元名义汇率的动态变化,并以此为基础进行实证研究,考察美元汇率及经济失调。

Analysis on Exchange Rate Dynamic from the Angle of Overshooting Model and Fictitious Economy

The analysis of exchange rate decision and its dynamic adjustment are the core of exchange rate theory.In this paper,based on the exchange rate overshooting model,we highlight the mechanism of fictitious economy and real economy and their two-wheeled driven manner operation,which is associated with the aggregate supply and aggregate demand of macro-economic.With the help of non-linear macro-finance theory,we introduce tradable financial assets into the money supply and demand analysis,and try to make a new ...