中国房地产财富效应测度的实证研究

中国居民的财富特征与发达国家居民的财富特征明显不同。利用中国1996—2007年房地产价格和居民消费的季度数据,建立房地产财富效应模型,对中国房地产财富效应进行测度,计算结果表明:随着中国经济增长和居民收入的增加,房地产财富对居民消费的影响不断增强。房地产价格变化是居民消费增加的Granger原因,居民消费的增加是城镇居民可支配收入上升的Granger原因。无论从长期还是短期分析,中国房屋价格变动都会给居民消费带来财富效应。通过脉冲响应函数分析可知,房地产价格的正向冲击将对居民消费产生正效应,导致居民消费增加,从而验证了中国房地产财富效应的存在。

Empirical Analysis of the Measurement of Real Estate Wealth Effect in China

China′s personal wealth characteristics are obviously different from that in developed countries. In order to reveal the relationship between real estate prices and resident consumption, the model of real estate wealth effect is constructed based on the quarterly data from 1996 to 2007. The results indicate that the impact of real estate wealth to resident consumption is enhancing continuously with economic growth and resident's income increase. The real estate price changes is a Granger cause of the resident's income increase while the resident′s income increase is the Granger cause of the increase of disposable income of urban residents. Regardless of short-run effect or long-run effect, housing price changes will bring wealth effect to the resident consumption. The impulse response function analysis indicates that the positive impact of real estate prices will have a positive effect on resident consumption, leading to resident consumption increase, which proves the existence of China′s real estate wealth effect.