人口规模与教育资源配置良性互动机制的动态仿真

我国人口规模与教育资源配置形成了恶性循环。以社会宏观动力学为分析框架, 基于2000—2019年面板数据,采用Vensim PLE软件,构建人口规模与教育资源配置互动机制系统动力学模型。研究表明：2024年开始,人口规模下降速度将逐年加快,教育市场将出现结构性萎缩,教育资源投入总量和速度将提高;人口规模对生产水平敏感;教育资源市场配置对人口增速、权力巩固程度、权力中心化程度、物力教育资源敏感。基于研究结论,提出两者良性互动的调适策略：保持经济高质量发展,降低生育养育成本;将生育权还给家庭,全面放开生育;巩固“双减”政策成效,引导教育需求;降低权力中心化程度,利用教育市场优势;加大教育资源投入,促进优质教育资源均衡。

Dynamic Simulation of Positive Interaction Mechanism between Population Size and Educational Resource Distribution

The population size and educational resource distribution in China have formed a negative feedback cycle. Taking social macro dynamics as an analytical framework, based on data from 2000 to 2019, a system dynamics model of the interaction mechanism between population size and educational resource distribution is constructed using Vensim PLE software. The simulation results show that starting from 2024, the decline rate of population size will accelerate year by year, and the education market will experience structural shrinkage, with an increase in the total amount and speed of education resource investment, population size is sensitive to production levels. The distribution of educational resources in the market is sensitive to population growth rate, degree of power consolidation, degree of power centralization, and material educational resources. Based on this, adjustment strategies are proposed for promoting positive interaction between the two elements: maintaining high-quality economic development and reducing the cost of childbirth and upbringing. Fully liberalize childbearing. Consolidate the effectiveness of the "double reduction" policy and guide the demand for education.Reduce the centralization of power and leverage the advantages of the education market. Increase investment in educational resources, and promote the balance of high-quality educational resources.