中国的区域关联与经济增长的空间溢出效应

本文使用探索性空间数据分析工具研究了1988-2009年间中国各省区人均GDP的空间分布格局与特征,结果显示:一方面,存在着全域范围的正的空间自相关性,并且这种相关性随着时间的推移在增大;另一方面,局域相关也显示出中国局域性的空间集聚特征越来越明显。以一个表征市场潜能对地区经济发展影响的新经济地理学模型为基础,本文通过计量分析进一步考察了中国区域经济发展的空间溢出效应。经验分析表明,空间溢出效应是中国地区经济发展不可忽视的重要影响因素,市场潜能每增长1%,地区人均GDP增长率将提高0.47%,超过了地区固定资产投资增长的弹性值。当然,实证分析也发现这种空间溢出效应会随着地区间距离间隔的增加而减少。

Regional Linkage and the Spatial Spillover Effects on Regional Economic Growth in China

Based on the ESDA method,this paper explores the feature of regional linkage and the spatial correlation among China’s regional per-capita GDP from 1998 to 2009.We find that there exists global spatial autocorrelation all over the country,and this kind of autocorrelation has been increasing since 1998.Meanwhile,the local spatial correlation is gradually being shown.During the last 10 years.With the help of the new-economy-geographical model,we try to explore the effect of the potential market on the regional economic growth in China.The empirical analysis shows that spatial spillover effect is important to the regional economic growth rate.1% increase of market potential raises GDP per capita growth by 0.47%.In terms of elasticity,the effect of market potential outperforms that of capital.However,the spatial spillover effect among regions will gradually vanish as the distance between regions increase.