Abstract: | The Kyoto Protocol, negotiated in December 1997, is the firstinternational treaty to limit emissions of greenhouse gases.But Kyoto does not mark the conclusion to international cooperationon climate change. It is really just a beginning. This papershows that, in the aggregate, the benefits of undertaking theKyoto reductions should exceed the corresponding costs providedthese are achieved cost-effectively. But, although Kyoto seeksto promote cost-effectiveness, it may yet prove very costly.Moreover, the agreement may not even achieve the reductionsthat it promises, either because emissions will relocate tothe countries that are not required to stay within Kyoto-prescribedceilings or because 'paper' trades will be promoted by the protocol'smechanisms. More fundamentally, Kyoto does not deter non-compliance,and it only weakly deters non-participation. These flaws needto be mended, but the nature of the problem makes that an especiallydifficult task. |