农业投融资与农业发展的关系研究——基于福建省改革开放30年的实证分析

本文以福建省为例,着重讨论了改革开放30年来农业投融资中不同主体的资金投入与农业发展的关系,运用协整检验、VAR模型、Granger因果关系检验、脉冲响应和方差分解等方法和模型展开分析。研究结果显示:外商和农民个人的农业投资对农业发展的促进作用比较显著;财政、农村集体和乡镇企业的农业投入以及金融机构的农业贷款对农业发展的带动作用不明显。最后,在有针对性地进行原因分析的基础上,提出相应的政策建议。

Research on Relationship between Agricultural Financing-investment and Agricultural Development:Based on Empirical Analysis in Fujian Since 1978

This paper takes Fujian as an example to discuss the relationship between agriculture investment with different investors and agricultural development since 1978, using the methods including cointegration-test, VAR model, Granger casual test,impulse response and variance decomposition. The result shows that agricultural investment from foreign tradesmen and farmers plays more prominent roles in agricultural devel opment, however, agricultural loan, government investment, rural collective investment and rural enterprises investment play less significant roles in agricultural development. Based on the analysis on reasons, it proposes some suggestions.