自来水供应系统水质风险耦合致因分析

以城市自来水水质事故致因为研究视角,首先识别供水水质风险因素,并从单、双及多因素角度分析供水水质风险因素间的耦合关系,再借助N-K模型对2008—2017年全国所发生的362起城市重大供水水质风险耦合度进行度量。结果表明:城市自来水供应动态系统中,水质风险率随着参与耦合的风险因素的增多而增加;管理因素风险是水质风险的内因,风险管控是规避水质风险的关键;环境因素风险对水质事故的发生起推动作用。

Causes for risk coupling of water quality accicdents in water supply system

From the perspective of the causes for water quality accidents in urban tap water production-supply system, firstly, the risk factors for water quality are identified, and their coupling relationship is analyzed from single, double and multiple factors. Secondly, the risk coupling degrees of 362 major urban water quality accidents occurred in China from 2008 to 2017 are measured by means of the N-K model. The results show that the risk rate of water quality accidents increases with the increase of the coupling risk factors in the dynamic urban tap water production-supply system. The management factor is the internal cause for risks of water quality accidents, and the risk management is the key to avoid water quality risks. The environmental factors promote the occurrence of water quality accidents.