甘肃省农业可持续发展评价及耦合协调性分析

[目的]农业是国民经济和社会发展之根本,农业可持续发展及协调水平研究为甘肃省农业可持续发展提供数据依据。[方法]以"人口—资源—经济—社会—环境"框架模型构建甘肃省农业可持续发展评价指标体系,采用熵值法和耦合协调模型,揭示2005—2015年甘肃省农业可持续发展水平及农业系统的耦合协调性。[结果]近10年间,甘肃省农业可持续发展总体水平持续提升,其中农业资源、经济、社会系统可持续发展水平持续提升,但是2005—2010年经历了一个滞后型的发展过程;农业人口、环境系统可持续发展水平持续下降,2011—2015年处于滞后型发展阶段。甘肃省农业人口、资源、经济、社会、环境系统耦合度和协调度波动上升,但整体水平仍处于低水平耦合、轻度失调阶段;两两子系统间的耦合性及协调性呈现出阶段性和"剪刀差"的分异特征。[结论]甘肃省农业可持续发展水平逐年持续提升,但农业系统总体耦合协调性仍处于欠佳局面,农业人口和环境困境逐渐成为甘肃省农业可持续发展进程中的瓶颈和制约因素。

EVALUATION OF AGRICULTURAL SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND ANALYSIS OF COUPLING COORDINATION IN GANSU PROVINCE

Agriculture is the foundation of national economy and social development. The research on the sustainable development and coordination of agriculture provides the data basis for the sustainable development of agriculture in Gansu province. By using the entropy method and coupled coordination model, this research constructed a comprehensive assessment of the indicators for agricultural population, resources, economy, society and environment system of Gansu province, and analyzed the level of agricultural sustainable development and the coupling coordination of agricultural systems during 2005 to 2015. The results showed that in the past 10 years, the overall level of sustainable agricultural development in Gansu province had continuously raised; the sustainable development level of agricultural resources, economy, and social systems was continuously promoted, however, they had suffered a "lagging development" period from 2005 to 2010; the sustainable development level of agricultural population and environmental systems continuously declined, and they had also suffered a "lagging development" period from 2011 to 2015. The degree of coupling and coordination of agricultural population, resources, economy, society, and the environment in Gansu province increased in fluctuation, but the overall level was still at a low coupling and a slight misadjustment; the coupling and coordination between each two subsystems showed a periodic characteristic and a distinctive feature of "scissors difference". It concludes that the general level of sustainable agricultural development in Gansu province continuously raises, but the agricultural system coupling coordination is still in poor condition, agricultural population and environmental dilemma gradually become bottleneck and constraint factors of the process of sustainable agricultural development in Gansu province.