全球经济重心东移的前景

由于亚洲经济保持高速增长,占全球的份额持续上升,有关全球经济重心东移的说法广为流行。但我们认为,至少在中期(10年)内亚洲经济还难以成为全球经济的重心。这主要受制于下述因素:亚洲区域内最终消费需求不足,对区域外市场的依赖格局难以改变;多数亚洲经济体还受制于自主创新能力不足的约束和未来全球气候变化规则的压力,在国际分工链条中难以完成跨越式的发展;亚洲统一市场的建立存在诸多障碍,在国际经济事务中无法形成共同的立场。如果亚洲国家不能在这些领域实现突破,全球经济将可能会形成不对称的双中心格局:亚洲作为世界制造中心与欧美作为世界金融中心并存。

Prospects of the World's Economic Center of Gravity Moving Eastward

Because the Asian economy has maintained a high growth rate and its share in the global economy has increased continually,many people insist that the world's economic center of gravity is shifting from the west(the US) to the east(Asia).However,we hold that it is impossible for Asia to be the world's economic center of gravity in the medium term(within 10 years).First,the Asian economy suffers from inadequate consumption demand,and its dependence on external markets for its growth will not change.Second,giv...