非化石能源份额与排放强度变化的互动研究

我国已经制定了到2020年实现非化石能源比重15％、排放强度下降40％-45％的目标。由于非化石能源份额扩大将降低经济的碳强度，这二者存在较强的联系。基于过去30年的发展轨迹，综述了经济、能源与排放指标的变化，建立解析式来衡量指标间的互动影响。分析表明：非化石能源份额目标与能源强度目标的实现，关键在于抑制化石能源的消费水平。从这一意义上，经济与能源结构调整是实现目标的关键。

Study on the Interaction of Non-fossil Fuel Share and Change in Emission Intensity

China has set the target by 2020 that the non-fossil fuel share will make up 15% of the total primary energy consumption and the emission intensity will decrease by 40%-45%.The increase of non-fossil fuel share will reduce the emission intensity,therefore the non-fossil fuel share and the emission intensity have close relationship.Based on an analysis of the development of the past 30 years,the paper reviews the changes of economy,energy and emission indices in China,and establishes an analytical formula to...