中国农村收入流动分析

本文利用农业部1986—2001年间六省农村固定观察点数据,对农村家庭收入流动进行了经验分析,发现:第一,分析期内农户呈现出收入流动程度随时间先增大后逐渐稳定的趋势,这使得持久收入不均等程度显著小于年度不均等,1995年以后虽然有较大的年度收入不均等,但持久收入不均等较小;第二,分析期内农村收入流动始终大于同期城市收入流动;第三,在1986—1990年间,农民平均收入较高省份的收入流动程度较大,而在1995—2001年间,各省收入流动差异并不明显;第四,农民收入水平有条件收敛的趋势,同时,教育水平提高、外出打工,都对农民收入增长有显著的推进作用。

An Analysis of Income Mobility in Rural China

In this paper we analyze household income mobility dynamics in rural China between 1986 and 2001. Four important findings are obtained: (1) Among all households, income mobility increased initially, and then kept stable. This means that dynamic inequality is significantly smaller than static inequality. After 1995, annual income inequality is larger than before but the opposite is true for permanent income inequality. (2) Compared to the urban area, income mobility in the rural area was higher during 1991—2001. (3) Mobility in richer provinces was higher between 1986 and 1990, but the difference became inconspicuous between 1995 and 2001. (4) Using multivariate analysis, we find that household income converges after other factors are controlled, while income growth depends on the change in the levels of education and chance of migrant jobs.