2006年:供给增加将驱动国际油价回落

2002年以来的国际原油价格在一系列基本面和非基本面因素作用下持续上涨，虽然到目前为止没有导致全球经济的衰退，但将导致全球经济活动减速，从而影响原油需求的增加。通过对2002—2004年的国际市场油价走势的回顾，并对影响2006年国际油价走势因素分析，预期由于需求增加减慢，供给增加，如果不出现重大突发事件，2006年国际油价将较2005年有所回落。

International Oil Price Will Descend Sharply in 2006

The international oil price has risen continuously under the function of a series of fundamental or non-fundamental factors since 2002. Though it hasn't caused recession of global economy so far, it will cause slowdown of global economic activities, and thereby affect the increase of crude oil demand. Based on review of international oil price trend during 2002 to 2004, and analysis of affecting factors of international oil price trend in 2006, it is concluded that because the demand increases more slowly, and the supply keeps on increasing, the international oil price in 2006 will be lower than it of 2005 should there is no outbreak of major accidents.