基于MARKOV理论的扬州市土地利用结构预测

根据扬州市1996—2004年间的土地利用平衡表数据,求得这期间全市土地利用结构的平均转移概率矩阵,运用Markov理论,模拟并检验2004年全市的土地利用结构,发现模拟值与实际值基本吻合,说明运用Markov理论预测扬州的土地利用结构是可行的。由此对全市2010年和2020年土地利用结构变化作预测,结果表明:在今后十几年的土地利用中,耕地、园地会继续减少,工矿用地和交通用地将大幅上升,但是各自的年变化幅度都会降低,同时农村居民点用地会不断减少,表明土地集约化利用将会是扬州市未来土地利用的侧重点。建议扬州市今后能改善农用地结构、引进先进技术以提高农用地效益;同时积极挖掘存量建设用地,提高建设用地的利用率。

STUDY ON THE FORECAST OF LAND STRUCTURE IN YANGZHOU CITY BASED ON MARKOV THEORY

Average transition probability matrix of land use structure in Yangzhou city has been offered from its balance tables from 1996 to 2004,this paper adopted Markov chain,simulates and then tests land use structure in 2004,the result is found identical to the actual condition,which tells us that using Markov theory to forecast land structure is feasible.Then,applying the very model to forecast the change of future land structure in 2010 and 2020 in Yangzhou,conclusions show that cultivated land and gardening land will decrease continuously while the industrial and transportation land will climb largely,however,both of them will change slowly.Meanwhile,the rural residential land shall drop remarkably in the coming years.All of them tell us the model for future land use in Yangzhou must be the intensive-oriented.Finally,the paper proposes some suggestions for sustainable land use,such as improving agricultural land structure and adopting advanced technology to increase farmland income;and making full use of the existed construction land to improve its utilization degree and benefits.