| Abstract: | This paper argues that in Thailand a link can be demonstrated between the recent fertility decline and an economic policy variable, the rice premium. The rice export tax introduced a check to profitability in rice agriculture, leading capital and also entrepreneurial talent out of agriculture into the urban industrial sector; keeping the structure of agriculture small-scale peasant holdings; and permitting labour costs to remain low in the urban industrial sector. Other government policies plus foreign investment and US aid led to rapid industrial growth, which coupled with consolidation of the transportation and communication systems triggered massive rural to urban migration. As Bangkok became a modern industrial metropolis, complete with urban sprawl, traffic congestion, and smog, the micro-economic cost—benefit equation turned against large families for many urban couples. Fertility fell rapidly in the urban areas, and this decline has spread into the countryside. The rice export tax thus has had profound demographic as well as economic effects. |
