二元经济框架下的中国寿险需求动态分析

寿险需求是保险领域重要的研究课题之一,本文使用VAR模型和脉冲响应函数从二元经济视角研究了社会保障、农民纯收入、城镇人均可支配收入、通货膨胀以及储蓄等外部冲击因素对寿险需求的影响。计量检验结果表明,农民收入以及社会保障体系是影响中国寿险需求的主要因素。一般而言,社保和商业寿险呈替代关系,但本文的实证结果意外证明了两者具有长期互补性。由此,我们衍生的政策建议是把增加农民收入作为拉动寿险需求的长期政策,同时应不断完善社保机制,实现社保与寿险的长期良性互动。

Dynamic Analysis of the Demand for Life Insurance on the Basis of Dual Economica

The demand for life insurance is a key issue in insurance industry.This paper establishes a dynamic model on basis of the rate of inflation,pure income of peasants,the social security,save and deposable income of urban,analynizing the path of impulse response of the demand for life insurance to the variations by VAR model and impulse response function.The authos make some conclusions: the key factors affecting the demand for life insurance are the pure income of peasants and the system of social security.