我国低碳经济转型下的情景分析和路径选择

发展低碳经济是各国应对气候变化的重要战略选择,文章借鉴IPAT模型,对2007-2020年我国经济发展、能源消耗和二氧化碳排放量的变化进行预测与分析。设定CO_2排放量的三个情景：基准情景（BAU）、提高能源效率情景（EEI）、低碳情景（LC）,结果表明：低碳情景方案是我国实现低碳发展最适当、最可行的方案。在此方案下,我国CO_2排放强度可以按原定计划下降40~45%,同时经济增长率可达到6%。最后,基于我国发展遵循低碳情景方案,进一步给出了三条低碳转型的路径,即技术创新、能源结构优化和政策指导。

Scenario Analysis and Path Selection of Low-Carbon Transformation in China

Developing low-carbon economy is an important strategic choice for countries to cope with climate change. This paper uses IPAT model to forecast and analysis the change of our country＇s economic development, energy consumption and CO2 emissions of year 2007-2020. Set three scenarios of the CO2 emissions： baseline scenario business- as-usual （BAU）, scenarios to improve energy efficiency （EEl）, low-carbon scenarios （LC）, the results shows that low carbon scenario plan is the most appropriate and viable option to implement low carbon development in our country. In this scheme, the intensity of CO2 emissions could decrease by 40-45% according to the original plan, while the economic growth rate can reach 6%. Finally, based on the development of our country follows the low-carbon scenarios scheme, further gives the path of three low carbon transformation, that is, technological innovation, optimization of energy structure and policy guidance.