我国纺织品服装出口“贫困化增长”倾向的实证分析

纺织服装产品是我国最为重要的出口产品种类,近年来一直是我国贸易顺差的主要来源。但是统计数据显示纺织品服装行业的价格贸易条件正呈现出不断恶化的趋势,极有可能出现了"贫困化增长"。本文主要利用一个基于单要素贸易条件的经济福利模型,通过相关数据的收集处理,测算出纺织品服装行业经济福利的变化水平,从而判断我国纺织品服装行业是否存在贫困化增长现象。研究结果表明,虽然我国纺织品服装行业的价格贸易条件不断恶化,但是由于劳动生产率的提高抵消了这种恶化带来的福利损失,因此我国纺织品服装行业并未出现"贫困化增长现象"。

Empirical Analysis on the"Immiserizing Growth"Tendency in Chinese Textile Export

The textile industry is a major industry developed by the government with a lot of concerns. The textile is also a crucial category in exporting business, which has been a substantial source of favorable balance of payments. But the statistical data shows that the terms of trade of the textile industry shows a trend of deterioration. This paper calculates the variation of the economic welfare in textile industry through the model of economic welfare to judge whether the immiserizing growth exists. The results show that although the deterioration of the terms of trade has offset the beneficial effect of expansion and reduce the real income of Chinese textile industry, the loss of welfare was neutralized by the increase of the labor productivity. The conclusion is that the immiserizing growth does not exist in Chinese textile industry.