| 高速公路交通事故概率预测方法研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 王少群,张晓明.高速公路交通事故概率预测方法研究[J].价值工程,2014(13):67-68. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王少群 张晓明 |
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| 作者单位： | 长安大学经济与管理学院,西安710064 |
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| 摘 要： | 准确的高速公路交通事故概率预测可提高高速公路行车安全。通过分析高速公路交通事故的影响因素,建立高速公路交通事故影响因素体系,构造贝叶斯网络,提出基于贝叶斯网络的高速公路交通事故概率预测方法。此方法利用数据库先验概率信息及贝叶斯预测模型,得出高速公路交通事故概率值,以此判断事故危险等级。
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| 关 键 词： | 高速公路 交通事故预测 概率预测 贝叶斯网络 |
Probability Forecast Method for Freeway Traffic Accidents |
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| WANG Shao-qun,ZHANG Xiao-ming.Probability Forecast Method for Freeway Traffic Accidents[J].Value Engineering,2014(13):67-68. |
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| Authors: | WANG Shao-qun ZHANG Xiao-ming |
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| Institution: | ( School of Economics and Management, Chang＇an University, Xi＇an 710064, China ) |
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| Abstract: | Precise probability forecast for freeway traffic accidents is an important means to improve traffic safety. By analyzing the influence factors of highway traffic accidents, this paper establishes a Bayesian network, and develops the probability forecast method based on Bayesian network. This method determines the level of risk by analyzing the distribution of the accident probability values, after deriving them by using database prior probability information and Bayesian model. |
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| Keywords: | freeway forecast for traffic accidents probability forecast Bayesian network |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 等数据库收录！ |
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