Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises

We characterize the values of government debt and the debt's maturitystructure under which financial crises brought on by a loss of confidence inthe government can arise within a dynamic, stochastic general equilibriummodel. We also characterize the optimal policy response of the government tothe threat of such a crisis. We show that when the country's fundamentalsplace it inside the crisis zone, the government may be motivated to reduceits debt and exit the crisis zone because this leads to an economic boom anda reduction in the interest rate on the government's debt. We show thatthis reduction can be gradual if debt is high or the probability of a crisisis low. We also show that, while lengthening the maturity of the debt canshrink the crisis zone, credibility-inducing policies can have perverseeffects.