投资与通货膨胀、经济增长关系的实证研究——基于二元VAR模型的分析

采用1981-2012年的年度数据,对通货膨胀与经济增长之间的关系进行了实证分析,结果表明,二者之间不仅存在长期稳定的均衡关系,并且存在着双向的格兰杰因果关系。同时,通过引入投资增长率这一中间变量分析了通货膨胀与经济增长之间的传导机制,并根据实证分析,得到结论:经济增长会促进投资的增长,继而使得通货膨胀水平上升;而通货膨胀水平的提高会抑制投资增长,继而影响经济的增长。

Empirical Research of the Relationship between Investment Inflation and Economic Growth

Analysising the relationship between inflation and economic growth empirically by using the annual data from 1981 to 2012, the results show that there is long-term and stable relationship and there is a two-way Granger causality. Meanwhile, introducing investment growth to their relationship, and finding the following conclusions: economic growth will promote the growth of investment, which in turn makes the inflation rise; while inflation expansion will raise the level of investment growth, which in turn affect economic growth.