我国政府支出对人类发展指数影响的经验分析

文章用我国国家财政支出和预算外支出度量政府支出,计算出政府支出的增长率作为我国财政政策变动的代理变量,用我国的人类发展指数度量人类发展状况.对数据整理后,形成政府支出增长率和人类发展指数变动的时间序列.使用计量经济学的方法考察了政府支出变动对人类发展指数变动的影响,在借鉴其他学者对政府支出和经济增长关系研究成果的基础上,得出的基本结论是:在1990-2003年间,我国财政政策的变动和人类发展指数的变动没有显著的相关关系,二者之间也不能相互解释,我国财政政策依然是以拉动经济增长为政策偏向的,考虑财政政策变动的时滞,发现其对我国人类发展指数的影响为负.

An Empirical Analysis on Effects of Government Expenditure on Human Development Index in China

This paper use budgetary and extra-budgetary expenditure to measure Chinese government expenditure.The growth rate of government expenditure can be considered as proxy variable of fiscal policy.Human Development Index(HDI) is used to measure the situation of human development in China.Based on annual data,econometric approaches have been used to analyze the effects of government expenditure on HDI.Through time-series analysis with data through 1990-2003,we find no significant relationship between fiscal policy and HDI in China.Furthermore,they are not able to explain each other.The fiscal policy is still oriented by boosting economic growth.Considering the time lags of fiscal policy,we find the growth rate of government expenditure has negative effects on HDI.Thus it is important to review the role of fiscal policy.