信用债违约特征与市场展望

从总量的角度来看,信用债违约主体数量呈现上升的趋势,违约主体的行业、地区分布相对较为分散,各主体的违约特征呈现多元化的趋势,受经济增速下行压力加大、民企再融资收紧、股票质押爆仓等因素的影响较为明显。结合微观企业违约的最新特点,在信用风险分析的过程中需要重点关注企业是否发生了投资激进、短债长投、公司治理风险、财务舞弊等问题。建议正本清源,加强对财务造假的惩治力度,强化企业信息披露,推进社会信用体系建设,发挥民营企业信用缓释工具作用。

Characteristics of Credit Debt Default and Market Outlook

From the viewpoint of the aggregate,the number of credit debt default subject is on the rise,the industry and regional distributions of default subject are relatively decentralized,and the default characteristics of the subjects show a trend of diversification,which is obviously affected by such factors as the increased downward pressure on economic growth,tightening of private companies refinancing,and stock pledge blowing up.Taking into account the latest characteristics of micro-enterprise default,in the process of credit risk analysis,it is necessary to focus on whether the enterprise has aggressive investment,long-term investment in short-term debt,corporate governance risks,financial fraud and other issues.It is suggested that we should strengthen the punishment of financial fraud,reinforce corporate information disclosure,promote the construction of social credit system,and give full play to the role of credit release tools of private enterprises.