现收现付制养老保险风险量化及应对策略

现收现付制养老保险是一种代际转移的制度,其可持续发展的经济学基础为生产力、工资和人口三者的综合增长因素能够维持代际转移,从而保证人们退休后能够维持稳定的工资替代率。这三种因素的波动形成了一定的风险。如何量化和管理这些风险是本文的研究主题。本文将给出代际人口比例和代际工资比例满足的随机微分方程。基于此,考虑在给定缴费比例和工资替代率条件下,养老保险计划出现支付危机的概率分布。进而,为了寻找风险与收益的平衡,研究现收现付制养老保险的VaR。最后,利用中国的实际统计数据,对本文的理论结果给予实证阐述,并提出应对的策略。

The risk quantitative analysis for pay-as-you-go pension insurance and countermeasures

The pay-as-you-go pension insurance is an intergenerational transfer system whose economic foundation for sustainable development is that the growth of productivity,salaries and population can sustain the intergenerational transfer,thus ensuring retirees can maintain a stable salary replacement ratio.The fluctuation of each of these factors will pose challenges to this system.The focus of the paper is to study how to make a quantitative analysis of these risks and how to manage them.The paper offered a stoc...