当前国际汇率理论的局限性及其发展方向

现有汇率理论的局限性表现在对外汇交易量的放大效应、远期汇率的预测偏差、汇率的过度波动以及汇率决定等问题的解释力低下，用宏观经济学的理论体系构筑起来的现有汇率理论正陷入危机之中，需要进行变革。汇率理论的未来发展，将沿着宏观经济学的微观基础理论、金融市场微观结构理论和国际金融政治经济学三个方向发展。

On the Limitations and Development Orientation of the Current International Exchange Rate Theory

The paper holds that the limitations of the current international exchange rate theory based on macroeconomics lie in its weak explanations in the amplification effect of dealing volume, the forward bias, the excessive volatility, etc. It argues that the theory should be revised and reconstructed. The paper points out that the exchange rate theory will develop towards three orientations, i.e. microeconomic theory, micro-structure theory of the financial market and international financial-&-politic economics.