Tax and Spend,or Spend and Tax? An Inquiry into the Turkish Budgetary Process

For resolving the budget deficit problem, some economists have advocated spending cuts, while others support either tax increases or tax cuts. This paper investigates the interrelationship between the two fiscal variables for Turkey using bivariate and multivariate cointegrating models. The Engle-Granger and Johansen tests consistently support the existence of one nonzero cointegrating vector representing a stable long-run relationship between government spending and revenues in Turkey. Furthermore, the multivariate error-correction model suggests that taxes unidirectionally Granger-cause negative changes in spending in accordance with the Buchanan-Wagner hypothesis. Thus, from the perspective of policy making and the deficit solution debate, raising taxes in Turkey is perhaps the optimal solution to the current budget deficit predicament.