金融发展与中国跨省消费风险分担

本文利用中国1978—2008年间的省级数据,考察金融发展对消费风险分担程度的影响,结果发现风险分担程度随时间显著变化。在1978-1992年时间段上,金融深化提高了消费的风险分担程度,而信贷市场发展对消费的风险分担程度的影响并不明显。在1993-2002年时间段上,信贷市场发展提高了消费的风险分担程度,而金融深化降低了消费的风险分担程度。在2003-2008年时间段上,金融深化对消费的风险分担程度的影响并不明显,只有微弱的证据表明,信贷市场发展在该阶段提高了各省人均居民消费的风险分担程度。而证券市场发展对消费的风险分担程度的影响一直不明显。

FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND INTER-PROVINCIAL RISK SHARING OF CHINA'S CONSUMPTION

Using the correlated Chinese province-level data during 1978-2008,this paper examines the effect of financial development on the inter-provincial risk sharing.The evidences suggest that the inter-provincial risk sharing is time varying.Financial depth helps improve the degree of risk sharing while the credit market development plays limited role during 1978-1992.However,the credit market development helps improve the degree of risk sharing while the financial development depresses the degree of risk sharing during 1993-2002.Financial depth has non-existent inter-provincial risk sharing and the credit market development has tenuous effect on the improvement of the degree of risk sharing among inter-provincial per capita household consumption expenditure during 2003-2008.This paper also finds limited evidence suggesting that stock market development help improve the degree of risk sharing.