基于向量自回归模型的江苏省水资源利用与经济增长关系

选取1995—2013年江苏省水资源利用和经济增长的相关时间序列数据进行向量自回归(VAR)模型研究。在变量的平稳性检验和协整检验基础上,运用广义脉冲响应法和预测方差分解法,考察江苏省经济增长与水资源利用之间的长期均衡关系和动态影响特征。结果表明:江苏省经济增长水平对工业用水量冲击响应的滞后期强度最大,而对生活用水量冲击响应的反应最小,说明江苏省工业化进程的加快必将推动该省的经济增长,而生活中的水资源浪费行为也会抑制该省的经济提升。江苏省经济增长水平对该省水资源利用各变量的预测方差起着重要作用,而水资源利用各变量对该省经济增长的贡献度较低。建议不仅要重视江苏省经济发展中的水资源利用压力,更要关注水资源短缺、污染和浪费等一系列现实问题。

Dynamic relationship between economic growth and water resources utilization in Jiangsu Province based on VAR model

The related time series data of water resources and economic growth in Jiangsu Province from 1995 to2013 are selected to perform empirical analysis by using the VAR model. Based on the stability and co-integration tests on variables, the characteristics of long-term equilibrium relationship and dynamic effect between water resources utilization and economic growth in Jiangsu Province are analyzed by using the generalized impulse response method and variance decomposition method. The results show that the level of impact response of economic growth in Jiangsu Province to the water resources utilization in the industry is the highest, and that to the domestic water is the smallest. It indicates that the acceleration of the industrialization process in Jiangsu Province will promote its economic growth, and the behavior of wasting water will inhibit its economic increase. The economic growth plays an important role in the variance decomposition of water resources utilization in Jiangsu Province, and the contribution degrees of various variables of water resources utilization to the economic growth are low. It is revealed that much attention should be paid to the pressure of water resources utilization, and more attention should be paid to the shortage, pollution and waste of water resources in Jiangsu Province.