Imports as a cause of injury: The case of the U.S. steel industry

This paper develops a method for assessing whether or not imports have been the most significant cause of injury to a U.S. industry. Such a determination is required under the 'escape clause' provisions (Section 201) of the Trade Act of 1974. The method is applied to the case of the U.S. steel industry, which recently petitioned the I.T.C. for import relief. We find that relief is not warranted if the relevant period is taken to be 1976–1983, as specified in the industry's petition. The results are less clear for the shorter period from 1979 to 1983.