人民币汇率改革安全机制与政策设计分析

长期以来,人民币采取盯住美元的汇率制度,但由于中美经济结构、经济机制与增长水平不同,这种相对固定汇率制度与中美两国经济之间存在偏差,人民币面临巨大的升值压力和投机预期。2005年7月,实施新的汇率机制,迄今人民币安然无恙。中国在中美经济博弈中,重新获得汇率主权。本文根据结构增长理论、结构贸易政策理论、合作博弈理论、新汇率机制理论,评估人民币价值,分析人民币升值利益,提出了人民币汇率改革的原则、机制与路径及政策设计。

Reforms on RMB's Exchange Rate Safeguard Mechanism and Policy Plan Analysis

For quite a long time, RMB has been adopting the policy of pegging to the US dollars at a stable rate. But due to the differences of Sino-US economic structures, economic mechanism and growth levels, this relatively fixed exchange rate is derived from the bilateral economic game theory, and RMB has been encounting huge pressure of appreciation and market speculation expectation. This paper adopts both static and dynamic methods of appraisal to evaluate RMB, analyzes the benefits of its appreciation, and proposes the principles of RMB's exchange rate and its mechanism and paths as well as the policy plan.