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Natural gas prices and stock prices: Evidence from EU-15 countries
Authors:Ali Acaravci  Ilhan Ozturk  Serkan Yilmaz Kandir
Institution:1. Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Mustafa Kemal University, Antakya-Hatay, Turkey;2. Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Cag University, 33800, Mersin, Turkey;3. Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Cukurova University, Adana, Turkey
Abstract:This study investigates the long-run relationship between natural gas prices and stock prices by using the Johansen and Juselius cointegration test and error–correction based Granger causality models for the EU-15 countries. We employ quarterly data covering the period from 1990:1 to 2008:1. Empirical findings suggest that there is a unique long-term equilibrium relationship between natural gas prices, industrial production and stock prices in Austria, Denmark, Finland, Germany and Luxembourg. However, no relationship is found between these variables in the other ten EU-15 countries. Although we detect a significant long-run relationship between stock prices and natural gas prices, Granger causality test results imply an indirect Granger causal relationship between these two variables. In addition, we investigate the Granger causal relationship between stock returns, industrial production growth and natural gas price increase for Austria, Denmark, Finland, Germany and Luxembourg. As a result, increase in natural gas prices seem to impact industrial production growth at the first place. In turn, industrial production growth appears to affect stock returns.
Keywords:Natural gas prices  Stock prices  Economic activity  Cointegration  EU-15 countries
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