市场困惑政策 经济调侃技术——2006年第3季度国际金融综述与预期

2006年第3季度国际金融市场在世界经济相对乐观与美国经济相对悲观的不对称中艰难调整，市场价格趋势更多受美国货币政策预期和美国经济指标变化的影响，不仅呈现出各个市场之间的连接趋于正相关，并且导致一些相关价格指标的同步趋势。从国际金融市场价格与未来政策效果看，国际金融发展趋势将会继续随经济变化而继续加大调整力度。经济环境的脆弱复杂局面，将会导致国际金融价格波动加大；主要金融产品与资源商品指标的不可预期与不可预见将不仅加大投资风险，也将进一步刺激投机利润回报的欲望与运作。因此，从短期经济与政策态势以及从长期经济与金融战略角度看，国际金融市场应加强风险防范并不可掉以轻心。

Policy Puzzled by the Market, Technology Mocked by the Economy A Summary and Prolepsis of International Finance in the 3rd Quarter of 2006

The international financial market in the 3^rd quarter of 2006 was adjusted in the dissymmetry between the relative optimism for the world economy and comparative pessimism for the American economy. Market price trend was much more influenced by the American monetary policy prolepsis and American economy index changes, not only taking on a positive relevance trend of the link between various markets, but a synchronous trend for some related price indexes. Seen from the international financial market price and future policy effect, international finance development trend will continue to be further adjusted with the economy; the weak and complicated situation for the economy environment will make the international financial price fluctuation enlarged; unprediction of the main financial product and resources merchandise index will not only enlarge investment risk, but also further stimulate the desire and operation for the speculation profit return. Therefore, seen from short - term economy, policy situation and from the long - term economy and financial strategy, the international financial market should be enhanced the risk prevention.