麦克勒姆规则及其中国货币政策检验

本文以中国1995～2006年季度数据对麦克勒姆规则及其扩展形式分别进行了实证检验,结果表明:中国基础货币调控对经济增长反应显著,对通货膨胀反应偏弱,而对汇率的反应则与理论要求相悖。进一步对中国基础货币内生性进行协整检验,发现中国基础货币投放受国内固定资产投资与外汇储备影响较大。呈现出较强的内生性特征。因此,应尽快完善货币政策调控方式,由数量型调控逐步过渡到价格型调控,提高调控效果。

McCallum Rule and Its Test of Monetary Policy in China

By using the quarterly data of 1995-2006 of China,the paper empirically estimates the standard and expanded forms of the McCallum Rule.The results show that in China the base money responses to the econom- ic growth significantly,but weekly to the inflation rate.And the results also highlight a phenomenon against the theory that the base money reacts to the exchange rate in the wrong direction.After the co-integration test of the endogenouaness of base money in China,the paper finds that the base money is h...